Going for gold
BUSINESS sentiment, forecasts, confidence, optimism - call it what you like, but the top-down view is invariably gloomier than the bottom-up. For decades, it has been common for low single-figure per cent GDP growth forecasts in most markets to conflict with corporate earnings estimates from equity strategists somewhere in the teens. Clearly there are many reasons for this perennial gulf, but most observers agree that, self-interest of stock pushers aside, belief in success is crucial to achieving the best possible big-picture result.
The UK government insists there is all to play for post-Brexit. Cool Britannia 2.0 looms as we redefine our position on the world stage. Perhaps, as we often point out on these pages, there is inspiration to be found from the world of sport. Five months ahead of the Tokyo Olympics, Team GB believes it can improve on the 67 medals won at Rio 2016, when it took second place in the final table. Despite lower expectations from our previously world-leading rowers and cyclists (it is possible to succeed sitting on your backside), the highest forecast for medals is more than 90. It’s a similar story for England football manager Gareth Southgate ahead of Euro 2020. After taking his team to the World Cup semi finals in 2018 break goalscoring records in Euro qualification, they are now 4/1 favourite to win - assuming captain and top scorer Harry Kane returns to peak fitness.
Optimism and positivity cost businesses nothing and presents no downside after three-and-a-half bruising years of delayed investment decisions, uncertainty and low confidence. One business psychologist suggests that if CEOs and MDs were Disney characters, then Olaf (from Frozen), Happy (from Snow White), Russell the Boy Scout (from Up), Giselle (from Enchanted), and Baloo (from The Jungle Book) would be much more successful than Iago (from Aladdin), Grumpy (from Snow White) or Phil the Faun (from Hercules). Why? An optimistic attitude opens doors. It provides motivation, fortitude, and resilience - one of the most important personality traits for any leader of a growing business.